January 13, 2022
Portland Price Trends
01-01-20 08-01-21 12-01-21 01-06-22 01-13-22
#1 SWW (bu) 6.65 9.25 10.65 10.50 10.70
White Club 6.65 10.75 12.65 12.25 12.45
DNS 14% 7.14 10.33 11.30 10.33 10.05
HRW 11.5% 7.38 8.33 9.83 9.75 9.60
#2 Corn (ton) 211.00 251.00 269.00 283.00 281.00
#2 Barley 145.00 200.00 240.00 240.00 240.00
Wheat...West coast protein wheat markets remained well below the recent
highs as the futures complex went further adrift this week. Soft white bids
did see a rebound today, drawing support on word of a snap PL-480 tender on
3.2 mb of white wheat for shipment in mid-February. As a result, spot basis
to Chicago strengthened 40 cents from last week to $3.23 over March futures.
Weekly Sales...USDA reported an improved pace of export demand for U.S.
week last week, but with that being said the weekly total of 9.7 mb came in
20% below the four-week average. Overall year-to-date sales stand at 593
mb, which is 23% behind a year ago and 19% below the five-year average pace.
Top seller was hard red spring with 3.5 mb, putting sales at 159 mb which is
29% behind a year ago and 26% below average. Soft red winter garnered 2.4 mb
and with 87 mb in sales, sets 50% ahead of a year ago and 20% behind average.
The spike in hard red winter prices tempered demand, coming in at just 1.4 mb
for the week to put sales at 234 mb; 12% behind a year ago and 13% below the
average pace. Soft white registered 1.1 mb and with 107 mb in commitments is
setting 48% behind last year's record pace and 32% below average.
White Wheat Buyers...Export demand for U.S. white wheat shows that higher
prices are certainly swaying buyers toward other sources, especially for two
traditional "swing" buyers. China has booked 19 mb ytd versus 11 mb at this
time last year, while both Yemen and Indonesia have steered awaw from any U.S.
purchases this year, compared to respective commitments of 11 mb and 13 mb at
this time a year ago.
-Norm Ruhoff Contributing Analyst
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