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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/30 10:54

   Wheat, Beans Higher at Midday

   Corn is 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 8 to 9 cents higher, and wheat is 9 
to 12 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 450 points. The dollar index 
is 20 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with 
crude $0.45 higher. Livestock trade is firmer with hogs leading. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold up $3.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade drifting lower in 
pre-report action. The daily export wire will be watched to see if sales 
maintain the recent pace with nothing today. Ethanol margins are steady with 
the weekly report showing production down 25,000 barrels per day, with stocks 
down 306,000 barrels. Basis should see pressure this week with more bushels 
coming in to town. The report at 11 a.m. is expected to show corn stocks at 
2.25 billion bushels. On the December contract, trade has support at the $3.66 
20-day moving average which are below this a.m. then the $3.54 lower Bollinger 
Band, with the recent high at $3.78 as resistance.


   Soybean trade is 6 to 9 cents higher at midday with solid buying and spread 
trade ahead of the report, along with 215,000 metric tons sold to unknown on 
the daily wire. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 higher and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. 
The ral remains in the lower end of the range ahead of South American planting 
with farmers waiting for seasonal rains with Argentina working to encourage 
sales while Brazilian farmers have heavily sold ahead with acres expected to 
increase. Export offers continue to get tighter in availability as well with 
meal driving the product complex while strain on domestic logistics will 
increase as shipping pace needs move along at a rapid pace. The stocks report 
is expected to show 576 million bushels. The November chart has resistance 
atthe 20-day at $9.96 which we are back above this a.m. with the pre-report 
buying, with the lower Bollinger Band at $9.54 below that.


   Wheat trade is 9 to 12 cents higher at midday with rising Russian values 
inducing buying as trade remains overall range bound. European dryness will 
remain in focus along with Plains planting progress. Kansas City is at a 
73-cent discount to Chicago with spreads wider and back to the recent highs, 
while Minneapolis is back to a 25 cent discount with weaker action. Wheat 
drilling progress should expand across the Plains short term with OK moisture 
for most for now but follow-up rain lacking overall. The stock report is 
expected to show 2.242 billion bushels with all wheat production at 1.841 
billion bushels. Kansas City December chart resistance is the fresh high at 
$5.09, and support is the 20-day at $4.79, which we are just above with the 
lower Bollinger Band the next level at $4.61.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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